When Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co. told reporters at the Fortune's Most Powerful Women conferenceWashington, D.C. that adding gold to a portfolio was now "semi‑rational," the finance world got a rare glimpse of the bank chief’s evolving view on the shiny metal. The comment came on October 15, 2025, just hours after spot gold touched $4,142 an ounce, a 58 % climb since the start of the year and more than double its 2023 level. Dimon’s shift matters because his long‑standing skepticism has often shaped investor sentiment across the globe.
Why the Gold Surge Feels Different This Time
Gold has been on a roller‑coaster ride for three years. In early 2023 the price hovered just under $2,000 per ounce; by October 2025 it was soaring above $4,000. The rally is being driven by a mix of central‑bank buying, institutional appetite for a hedge against inflation, and a wave of retail investors who remember the pandemic‑era scramble for tangible assets.
Central banks, especially those in emerging markets, have been buying gold "by the kilo," according to data from the World Gold Council. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s discretionary policy – still waiting for a clear signal to end its rate‑hiking cycle – adds a layer of uncertainty that pushes safe‑haven demand.
Dimon’s Remarks in Context
Dimon didn’t launch directly into optimism. When Fortune editor Alyson Shontell asked, "Gold: overvalued or undervalued?" he replied, "I don’t know. I’m not a gold buyer…" before adding that in the current environment the metal "could easily go to $5,000, $10,000 per ounce." He also reminded listeners that owning gold carries a roughly 4 % annual cost, a figure that erodes returns unless price appreciation outpaces it.
"One of the few times in my life I consider gold rational," Dimon said, "because the growth potential during uncertain economic conditions is significant." The comment sat alongside a broader warning that "asset prices appear inflated" across equities, real estate, and even bonds.
Market Reactions and Other Voices
Not everyone was thrilled by Dimon’s tentative endorsement. Ken Griffin, founder of the hedge fund Citadel, told Bloomberg that investors now treat gold as "a safer bet than the U.S. dollar," calling the shift "alarming" for the dollar’s dominance.
Retail sentiment, however, looks more upbeat. A Reddit user posted in March 2025 about buying a one‑ounce bar for $3,079, noting the metal’s price had already risen 20 % in just three months. Such anecdotes echo the broader trend: a surge in individual metal purchases that mirrors the early‑2020 pandemic buying spree.
Analyst Forecasts: Optimism with Caveats
Two heavyweight research outfits released projections that differ but share a bullish core. ANZ Research predicts gold will hit $4,400 per ounce by the end of 2025 and could peak at $4,600 in mid‑2026 before easing as the Federal Reserve wraps up its easing program.
Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan Private Bank offers a more conservative range: $2,900‑$3,000 by mid‑2026 and $3,100‑$3,200 by year‑end 2026. Their model leans on continued central‑bank demand, expected Fed rate cuts, and a potential rebalancing of retail portfolios as cash yields retreat.
Both forecasts note a political wildcard: a return of a Trump administration could spur even stronger gold buying, driven by concerns over U.S. fiscal policy and a possible shift away from the dollar as the primary reserve currency.
Broader Implications for Investors
Dimon’s acknowledgement gives a subtle green light to cautious investors who have long avoided the metal. While he stopped short of recommending a specific allocation, his comment validates the idea that a modest exposure – perhaps 5‑10 % of a diversified portfolio – could act as insurance against a potential equity correction.
At the same time, the 4 % ownership cost means the move isn’t free money. As Dimon reminded, the expense can eat into returns if prices stall.
For JPMorgan’s own clients, the bank’s private‑bank division is already rolling out gold‑focused advisory notes, suggesting clients consider the metal as part of a broader asset‑allocation strategy that balances growth prospects with downside protection.
What’s Next? Watching the Fed, the Dollar, and Geopolitics
The next few months will be decisive. If the Federal Reserve finally signals an end to its restrictive stance, the dollar could regain footing, potentially pulling gold prices lower. Conversely, any escalation in the Russia‑Ukraine war or fresh trade frictions between the U.S. and China could reignite safe‑haven demand.
Investors should also keep an eye on central‑bank policy updates. The People’s Bank of China recently hinted at expanding its gold reserves, a move that could add another layer of upward pressure.
In short, Dimon’s "semi‑rational" comment is a snapshot of a market in flux – one where the old guard is beginning to entertain ideas that were once considered fringe.
Frequently Asked Questions
How might Dimon’s comments influence individual investors?
Even though Dimon didn’t issue a direct recommendation, his status as a top‑tier banking CEO gives weight to the idea of modest gold exposure. Advisors may now feel more comfortable suggesting a 5‑10 % allocation as a hedge, especially for clients worried about equity volatility.
What are the main drivers behind gold’s recent price rise?
Key factors include aggressive buying by central banks, lingering inflation worries, a hesitant Federal Reserve, and a surge in retail purchases. Geopolitical tensions—particularly the Russia‑Ukraine conflict—also push investors toward safe‑haven assets.
What do analysts expect for gold’s price in 2026?
ANZ Research sees gold hovering around $4,400‑$4,600 by mid‑2026, while J.P. Morgan Private Bank projects a more modest $3,100‑$3,200 by year‑end 2026. Both forecasts hinge on continued central‑bank demand and potential Fed rate cuts.
Could a political shift in the U.S. affect gold prices?
Yes. Analysts note that a return of a Trump administration could boost gold demand, as concerns about fiscal policy and a possible move away from the dollar as the primary reserve currency would make gold more attractive.
What risks should investors watch for?
The primary risk is price volatility. If the Federal Reserve tightens policy or the dollar strengthens, gold could retreat sharply. Additionally, the 4 % annual storage and insurance cost can erode returns if the metal’s price stalls.
