US faces half a million COVID-19 deaths by February-end, study finds

London, October 23

More than a half million individuals within the United States may die from COVID-19 by the top of February subsequent yr, however round 1,30,000 of these lives could possibly be saved if all people have been to put on masks, in accordance with estimates from a modelling examine.

The estimates, from a examine by researchers on the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, present that with few efficient COVID-19 therapy choices and no vaccines but out there, the US faces “a continued COVID-19 public health challenge through the winter.” “We are heading into a very substantial fall/winter surge,” mentioned IHME director Chris Murray, who co-led the analysis.

He mentioned the projections, in addition to the real-life present proof of rising an infection charges and deaths, confirmed there isn’t any foundation to “the idea that the pandemic is going away,” including: “We do not believe that is true.”

US President Donald Trump’s dealing with of the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed greater than 2,21,000 Americans thus far, has develop into the highest election difficulty for him and Democratic candidate Joe Biden. Polls have proven that Americans belief Biden greater than Trump to deal with the disaster.

The IHME examine forecast that enormous, populous states comparable to California, Texas and Florida will probably face notably excessive ranges of sickness, deaths and calls for on hospital sources.

“We expect the surge to steadily grow across different states and at the national level, and to continue to increase as we head towards high levels of daily deaths in late December and in January,” Murray mentioned.

The modelling examine, which mapped out numerous situations and their projected affect on the unfold of the COVID-19 epidemic within the United States, discovered that common mask-wearing may have a significant affect on deaths charges, probably saving 1,30,000 lives.

Current masks use within the United States varies broadly. While some states, like New York, set strict guidelines on when to put on masks, others don’t have any necessities. The difficulty has develop into political, through which some supporters have taken their cues from Trump, who is usually seen with out a masks and has repeatedly questioned their usefulness.

“Expanding mask use is one of the easy wins for the United States … and can save many lives,” Murray mentioned.

He added that, simply as proper now in elements of Europe and in some native areas of excessive transmission within the US, many US states would wish to re-introduce social distancing measures to curb the winter surge. Reuters