Tokyo Olympics difficult without vaccine: Japan Medical Association

The medical group in Japan is transferring towards a consensus that holding subsequent yr’s Tokyo Olympics might hinge on discovering a coronavirus vaccine.

Japan Medical Association president Yoshitake Yokokura mentioned in a video media convention on Tuesday that the Olympics had been attainable provided that the infections had been beneath management, not solely in Japan, however globally.

“In my view, it would be difficult to hold the Olympics unless effective vaccines are developed,” Yokokura mentioned.

He didn’t say whether or not he opposes the Olympics with out vaccines.

Japan has reported 13,576 COVID-19 instances, and 712 others from a cruise ship quarantined close to Tokyo earlier this yr. ‘ On Tuesday, the health ministry reported 389 total deaths from the virus.

Japan and the International Olympic Committee agreed to postpone the Tokyo Games until July 23, 2021, because of the coronavirus pandemic. Japan is under a month-long state of emergency amid a rapid increase of infections across the country.

A Japanese professor of infectious disease said last week he was also skeptical the Olympics could open in 15 months.

“I am very pessimistic about holding the Olympics Games next summer unless you hold the Olympic Games in a totally different structure such as no audience, or a very limited participation,” said Kentaro Iwata, professor of infectious disease at Kobe University.

Devi Sridhar, a professor of Global Health at the University of Edinburgh, also said holding the Olympics may depend on finding a vaccine. This could also apply to the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics in China, where the coronavirus was first detected.

She said a vaccine was “optimistically 12 to 18 months away.” “Science is just half the battle,” Sridhar said in an email to The Associated Press.

“The other half is manufacturing enough doses and getting these into people across the world. How would prioritization be done?” She asked who would get the vaccine first, health workers, those working with the vulnerable or the elderly, or the elderly themselves.

Sridhar said it was unclear how young, strong, Olympic athletes would “fit” into the “priority process.” “I’m certain there’s going to be some modern enthusiastic about how one can mix security of athletes, their coaches and groups, with the notice that sports activities play a vital function for the world — for financial causes, but in addition socially,” she mentioned.

Masa Takaya, a spokesman for the Tokyo Olympics, mentioned he was conscious of the feedback from the top of the Japan Medical Association.

“We understand there are a variety of insights, opinions around the possibility of hosting the games next year,” Takaya mentioned. “Some medical experts are also expressing that it is too early to made a judgment.” There will a push from many quarters to carry the Olympics subsequent yr — vaccine or no vaccine, followers or no followers.

“This is placing tremendous pressure on all involved to devise an acceptable, rather than optimal solution,” David Carter, who teaches sports activities enterprise on the University of Southern California, mentioned in an e-mail to the AP.

“Add to this the unwavering importance the IOC places on its brand, and the uncertainty in terms of public health and you find yourself with international sports’ version of a Rubik’s cube.”

The International Olympic Committee is dependent upon promoting broadcast proper for 73% of its revenue. Another 18% is from sponsors. The IOC has solely two main occasions to promote, and broadcasters don’t pay a lot of their price till the Olympics are aired.

Japan has formally spent $12.6 billion to prepare the Olympics, and a nationwide audit workplace says the actual determine is eventually twice that enormous. Media estimates in Japan say the price of the delay might be $2 billion to $6 billion.

Add to this 11,000 Olympic athletes, and 4,400 Paralympians. The overwhelming majority get just one shot on the video games.

And then there are the sponsors.

Japanese organizers have signed up greater than 60, they usually have paid about $3.Three billion to be linked to the Olympics. The IOC additionally had 14 long-term sponsors like Coca-Cola and semiconductor maker Intel, that are reported to pay about $100 million to be linked to the Olympics.

Tokyo has additionally offered thousands and thousands of tickets. It’s unclear what is going to occur if the Olympics are held with out followers. The tickets carry a power majeure clause, which can allow organizers to keep away from refunds.

Tokyo organizers anticipated revenue of $800 million from ticket gross sales.

“The pandemic is changing sport worldwide,” mentioned Doug Arnot, who has held senior employees or consulting positions with eight Olympic organizing committees.

The Los Angeles-based advisor labored with the Tokyo bid committee, however is now not concerned with Tokyo.

“It will probably have significant impacts on the way we organize events and the way we deliver them. This is not just about Tokyo,” Arnot mentioned.

“This is about about the world of mega-events. This virus has changed the way we look at these events. Sport wants to be a responsible member of the world community.”