Steady dip in urban unemployment rate before lockdown, finds survey

India’s labour market was starting to search for, regardless of a deceleration in GDP development, earlier than the Covid-19 pandemic pressured a lockdown in March. Statistics from the newest Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) for the quarter ending December 2019 present that the city unemployment fee had been declining for 4 consecutive quarters.

To be certain, a quarter-on-quarter comparability could possibly be deceptive due to seasonal results on employment.

The city unemployment was 7.9% within the quarter ending December 2019, in comparison with 9.9% in the identical interval the earlier yr. This is in line with the development of a decline within the unemployment fee within the quarters ending June 2019 and September 2019 as nicely. The PLFS report for the quarter ending December 2019 was launched on Thursday whereas the September 2019 report was launched on October 19. The quarterly PLFS estimates can be found from the April-June 2018 quarter onwards.

While unemployment amongst younger individuals (15-29 years outdated) is considerably greater than the headline numbers, this too has been declining in comparison with the earlier yr’s ranges.

While the decline within the unemployment fee is comparatively smaller for younger individuals, their labour drive participation fee (LPFR) has grown greater than that of the older age teams within the first three quarters of 2019-20 in comparison with the corresponding intervals in 2018-19.

The development was 2.4%, 2.4% and three.1% for the primary three quarters for individuals within the 15-29 age group whereas it was 0.6%, 1.3%, and a pair of.1% for the 15 years and above age group. LPFR measures the share of inhabitants in a given age group which is both working or searching for a job.

The estimates within the quarterly survey are primarily based on the present weekly standing of these surveyed. In such estimates, individuals are thought of to be part of the labour drive in the event that they labored or have been obtainable or searching for work for a minimum of one hour within the week previous the survey.

The quarterly bulletin additionally offers the standing and trade of employment of these employed in city areas and of age 15 years and above. In October-December 2019, 50% staff have been common wage incomes or salaried staff, 38% have been self-employed and 12.1% have been informal staff.

Compared to the identical interval in 2018, the share of the previous two elevated by 1% and 0.3%, respectively, whereas that of the latter decreased by 4%.